USB
Q3 2026 Earnings
Thu, Oct 15 · Before open
Expected move · ML forecast
±2.9%
$56.31 · $59.69 · via ML forecast
Earnings move
Market vs model vs history
Absolute move magnitude around $58.00 spot. Price ranges are symmetric references, not directional forecasts.
Options-implied
±5.1%
$55–$61
ATM straddle
Nightly model
±2.9%
$56–$60
P10–P90 0.6%–6.6%
Historical median
±1.6%
$57–$59
Last 4 earnings
Straddle exceedance ≈23%Options price 2.2 percentage points more movement than the model.IV rank 46%Light band P10–P90 · dark band P25–P75 · line P50Quantile interpolation · before spreads, fees, and post-event IV change
Historical
Event study · 8 events
Realized earnings reactions versus the option-implied range available before each event.
EPS beat 1/1
Observations
8
Median |move|
1.7%
Outside implied
1/8
Largest |move|
5.6%
EPS surprisevs sell-side consensus
Implied rangeRealized (up)Realized (down)Outside implied
Comparable history1417 events across 306 symbols · 0.56x median realized/implied · 25% outside implied
ATM IV
30.6%
Front-month · 16 DTE
IV-based expected move
±6.4%
31% annualized IV · 16 DTE
ATM Straddle
$2.96
Call + put · strike $58.00
IV Rank
46%
52w 19–39%
Term structure
Implied range across expiries
Spot × (1 ± EM) at each expiry. Hover an expiry for details.
3 expiries
Practical scenario
Earnings gap scenarios
One long ATM straddle held to expiry · before fees and IV repricing.
K $58.00 · paid $2.96
-1.5× EM
$148
-1× EM
-$0
No move
-$296
+1× EM
-$0
+1.5× EM
$148
Move unit ±5.1% · spot $58.00Model midpoint ±2.9%Expiry payoff proxy, not a forecast.
ATM greeks
Greeks by expiry
ATM call · delta hedge ratios, sensitivity to vol and time.
| Expiry | DTE | ATM IV | Δ Delta | Γ Gamma | 𝜈 Vega | Θ Theta | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 16Earnings K $58 | 16d | 30.61% | 0.501 | 0.1055 | 0.05 | -0.03 | $2.96 |
Oct 30 K $58 | 30d | 28.47% | 0.521 | 0.0830 | 0.07 | -0.03 | $3.77 |
Nov 20 K $58 | 51d | 27.26% | 0.561 | 0.0660 | 0.09 | -0.02 | $4.72 |
Research snapshot
ValidatedEnd-of-day research
Options snapshotSep 30Frozen chain inputs
Earnings eventOct 15before open
Forecast modelT-21 modelInputs from Sep 24
Forecast checks13 controls0 exceptions · checked Oct 16
Research data · as of 2026-09-30Method: ML forecast