UNH
Q3 2026 Earnings
Tue, Oct 13 · Before open
Expected move · ML forecast
±4.8%
$352.37 · $387.63 · via ML forecast
Earnings move
Market vs model vs history
Absolute move magnitude around $370.00 spot. Price ranges are symmetric references, not directional forecasts.
Options-implied
±8.7%
$338–$402
ATM straddle
Nightly model
±4.8%
$352–$388
P10–P90 0.9%–11.8%
Historical median
±4.1%
$355–$385
Last 4 earnings
Straddle exceedance ≈21%Options price 3.9 percentage points more movement than the model.IV rank 56%Light band P10–P90 · dark band P25–P75 · line P50Quantile interpolation · before spreads, fees, and post-event IV change
Historical
Event study · 8 events
Realized earnings reactions versus the option-implied range available before each event.
EPS beat 1/1
Observations
8
Median |move|
7.2%
Outside implied
5/8
Largest |move|
22.4%
EPS surprisevs sell-side consensus
Implied rangeRealized (up)Realized (down)Outside implied
Comparable history2550 events across 564 symbols · 0.52x median realized/implied · 22% outside implied
ATM IV
51.5%
Front-month · 16 DTE
IV-based expected move
±10.8%
51% annualized IV · 16 DTE
ATM Straddle
$32.17
Call + put · strike $370.00
IV Rank
56%
52w 25–54%
Term structure
Implied range across expiries
Spot × (1 ± EM) at each expiry. Hover an expiry for details.
3 expiries
Practical scenario
Earnings gap scenarios
One long ATM straddle held to expiry · before fees and IV repricing.
K $370.00 · paid $32.17
-1.5× EM
$1609
-1× EM
-$0
No move
-$3217
+1× EM
-$0
+1.5× EM
$1609
Move unit ±8.7% · spot $370.00Model midpoint ±4.8%Expiry payoff proxy, not a forecast.
ATM greeks
Greeks by expiry
ATM call · delta hedge ratios, sensitivity to vol and time.
| Expiry | DTE | ATM IV | Δ Delta | Γ Gamma | 𝜈 Vega | Θ Theta | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 16Earnings K $370 | 16d | 51.48% | 0.508 | 0.0100 | 0.31 | -0.50 | $32.17 |
Oct 30 K $370 | 30d | 42.21% | 0.509 | 0.0089 | 0.42 | -0.30 | $35.59 |
Nov 20 K $370 | 51d | 37.61% | 0.525 | 0.0076 | 0.55 | -0.22 | $41.40 |
Research snapshot
ValidatedEnd-of-day research
Options snapshotSep 30Frozen chain inputs
Earnings eventOct 13before open
Forecast modelT-14 modelInputs from Sep 29
Forecast checks13 controls0 exceptions · checked Oct 16
Research data · as of 2026-09-30Method: ML forecast