SCHW
Q3 2026 Earnings
Thu, Oct 15 · Before open
Expected move · ML forecast
±4.1%
$94.90 · $103.10 · via ML forecast
Earnings move
Market vs model vs history
Absolute move magnitude around $99.00 spot. Price ranges are symmetric references, not directional forecasts.
Options-implied
±6.1%
$93–$105
ATM straddle
Nightly model
±4.1%
$95–$103
P10–P90 0.9%–9.1%
Historical median
±1.7%
$97–$101
Last 4 earnings
Straddle exceedance ≈32%Options price 2.0 percentage points more movement than the model.IV rank 64%Light band P10–P90 · dark band P25–P75 · line P50Quantile interpolation · before spreads, fees, and post-event IV change
Historical
Event study · 8 events
Realized earnings reactions versus the option-implied range available before each event.
EPS beat 1/1
Observations
8
Median |move|
2.1%
Outside implied
1/8
Largest |move|
7.6%
EPS surprisevs sell-side consensus
Implied rangeRealized (up)Realized (down)Outside implied
Comparable history2079 events across 413 symbols · 0.56x median realized/implied · 25% outside implied
ATM IV
36.5%
Front-month · 16 DTE
IV-based expected move
±7.6%
36% annualized IV · 16 DTE
ATM Straddle
$6.05
Call + put · strike $99.00
IV Rank
64%
52w 20–39%
Term structure
Implied range across expiries
Spot × (1 ± EM) at each expiry. Hover an expiry for details.
3 expiries
Practical scenario
Earnings gap scenarios
One long ATM straddle held to expiry · before fees and IV repricing.
K $99.00 · paid $6.05
-1.5× EM
$302
-1× EM
-$0
No move
-$605
+1× EM
-$0
+1.5× EM
$302
Move unit ±6.1% · spot $99.00Model midpoint ±4.1%Expiry payoff proxy, not a forecast.
ATM greeks
Greeks by expiry
ATM call · delta hedge ratios, sensitivity to vol and time.
| Expiry | DTE | ATM IV | Δ Delta | Γ Gamma | 𝜈 Vega | Θ Theta | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 16Earnings K $99 | 16d | 36.46% | 0.461 | 0.0528 | 0.08 | -0.09 | $6.05 |
Oct 30 K $99 | 30d | 30.96% | 0.482 | 0.0456 | 0.11 | -0.06 | $7.01 |
Nov 20 K $98 | 51d | 29.34% | 0.545 | 0.0369 | 0.14 | -0.04 | $8.55 |
Research snapshot
ValidatedEnd-of-day research
Options snapshotSep 30Frozen chain inputs
Earnings eventOct 15before open
Forecast modelT-21 modelInputs from Sep 24
Forecast checks13 controls0 exceptions · checked Oct 16
Research data · as of 2026-09-30Method: ML forecast