Progressive (PGR)

Progressive

PGR

Q3 2026 Earnings

Reports in

-3days

Wed, Jul 15 · Before open

Options-implied move

±4.3%

$198.60 · $216.40 · via ATM straddle

ATM IV

26.5%

Δ term slope 0.0 v/30d

IV-based EM

±5.4%

σ 27% · 15d

ATM Straddle

$8.90

Strike $207.50

IV Rank

18%

52w 22–50%

Provider signals

Crowding and flow context

Signal score 24

Short days

1.7

7.8M shares short

P/C volume

1.13x

1.7K puts / 1.5K calls

P/C OI

0.65x

4.6K puts / 7.2K calls

Actions

5/1

dividend / split events

massive · short 2026-06-30 · IV coverage 69%

Expected move

Probability density around spot

Log-normal model with ATM IV 26.5% over 15 days. Range $198.60–$216.40.

$190.77 · -8.1%Spot $207.50$224.23 · +8.1%

Spot

−4.3%

+4.3%

Straddle bandIV bandLog-normal density

Hover for probability · click to pin

Term structure

Implied range across expiries

Spot × (1 ± EM) at each expiry. Hover an expiry for details.

4 expiries

Historical

Realized moves · last 8 quarters

Close-to-close moves; implied range pending historical option chains.

Realized (up)Realized (down)

ATM greeks

Greeks by expiry

ATM call · delta hedge ratios, sensitivity to vol and time.

Expiry	DTE	ATM IV	Δ Delta	Γ Gamma	𝜈 Vega	Θ Theta	Straddle
Jul 31Earnings K $208	15d	26.52%	0.476	0.0356	0.17	-0.15	$8.90
Aug 14 K $205	29d	26.61%	0.563	0.0253	0.23	-0.11	$12.40
Aug 28 K $210	43d	26.41%	0.457	0.0212	0.28	-0.09	$15.25
Sep 18 K $210	64d	26.16%	0.485	0.0173	0.34	-0.08	$18.35

Options data · as of 2026-07-16Method: options math baseline