MS
Q3 2026 Earnings
Wed, Oct 14 · Before open
Expected move · ML forecast
±3.6%
$183.07 · $196.93 · via ML forecast
Earnings move
Market vs model vs history
Absolute move magnitude around $190.00 spot. Price ranges are symmetric references, not directional forecasts.
Options-implied
±5.8%
$179–$201
ATM straddle
Nightly model
±3.6%
$183–$197
P10–P90 0.8%–6.5%
Historical median
±4.6%
$181–$199
Last 4 earnings
Straddle exceedance ≈28%Options price 2.2 percentage points more movement than the model.IV rank 55%Light band P10–P90 · dark band P25–P75 · line P50Quantile interpolation · before spreads, fees, and post-event IV change
Historical
Event study · 8 events
Realized earnings reactions versus the option-implied range available before each event.
EPS beat 1/1
Observations
8
Median |move|
2.7%
Outside implied
1/8
Largest |move|
5.8%
EPS surprisevs sell-side consensus
Implied rangeRealized (up)Realized (down)Outside implied
Comparable history1953 events across 384 symbols · 0.57x median realized/implied · 25% outside implied
ATM IV
34.8%
Front-month · 16 DTE
IV-based expected move
±7.3%
35% annualized IV · 16 DTE
ATM Straddle
$11.07
Call + put · strike $190.00
IV Rank
55%
52w 23–45%
Term structure
Implied range across expiries
Spot × (1 ± EM) at each expiry. Hover an expiry for details.
3 expiries
Practical scenario
Earnings gap scenarios
One long ATM straddle held to expiry · before fees and IV repricing.
K $190.00 · paid $11.07
-1.5× EM
$554
-1× EM
-$0
No move
-$1108
+1× EM
-$0
+1.5× EM
$554
Move unit ±5.8% · spot $190.00Model midpoint ±3.6%Expiry payoff proxy, not a forecast.
ATM greeks
Greeks by expiry
ATM call · delta hedge ratios, sensitivity to vol and time.
| Expiry | DTE | ATM IV | Δ Delta | Γ Gamma | 𝜈 Vega | Θ Theta | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 16Earnings K $190 | 16d | 34.85% | 0.477 | 0.0288 | 0.16 | -0.18 | $11.07 |
Oct 30 K $190 | 30d | 34.90% | 0.492 | 0.0210 | 0.22 | -0.13 | $15.12 |
Nov 20 K $190 | 51d | 31.92% | 0.494 | 0.0177 | 0.28 | -0.09 | $17.98 |
Research snapshot
ValidatedEnd-of-day research
Options snapshotSep 30Frozen chain inputs
Earnings eventOct 14before open
Forecast modelT-14 modelInputs from Sep 30
Forecast checks13 controls0 exceptions · checked Oct 16
Research data · as of 2026-09-30Method: ML forecast