MRSH
Q3 2026 Earnings
Thu, Oct 15 · Before open
Expected move · ML forecast
±4.1%
$163.00 · $177.00 · via ML forecast
Earnings move
Market vs model vs history
Absolute move magnitude around $170.00 spot. Price ranges are symmetric references, not directional forecasts.
Options-implied
±4.6%
$162–$178
ATM straddle
Nightly model
±4.1%
$163–$177
P10–P90 1.0%–9.6%
Historical median
±4.4%
$163–$177
Last 3 earnings
Straddle exceedance ≈43%Options price 0.5 percentage points more movement than the model.IV rank 39%Light band P10–P90 · dark band P25–P75 · line P50Quantile interpolation · before spreads, fees, and post-event IV change
Historical
Event study · 3 events
Realized earnings reactions versus the option-implied range available before each event.
EPS beat 1/1
Observations
3
Median |move|
4.4%
Outside implied
0/2
Largest |move|
6.0%
EPS surprisevs sell-side consensus
Implied rangeRealized (up)Realized (down)Outside implied
Comparable history1079 events across 253 symbols · 0.57x median realized/implied · 26% outside implied
ATM IV
27.7%
Front-month · 16 DTE
IV-based expected move
±5.8%
28% annualized IV · 16 DTE
ATM Straddle
$7.90
Call + put · strike $170.00
IV Rank
39%
52w 20–35%
Term structure
Implied range across expiries
Spot × (1 ± EM) at each expiry. Hover an expiry for details.
2 expiries
Practical scenario
Earnings gap scenarios
One long ATM straddle held to expiry · before fees and IV repricing.
K $170.00 · paid $7.90
-1.5× EM
$395
-1× EM
$0
No move
-$790
+1× EM
$0
+1.5× EM
$395
Move unit ±4.6% · spot $170.00Model midpoint ±4.1%Expiry payoff proxy, not a forecast.
ATM greeks
Greeks by expiry
ATM call · delta hedge ratios, sensitivity to vol and time.
| Expiry | DTE | ATM IV | Δ Delta | Γ Gamma | 𝜈 Vega | Θ Theta | Straddle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct 16Earnings K $170 | 16d | 27.67% | 0.524 | 0.0402 | 0.14 | -0.14 | $7.90 |
Nov 20 K $170 | 51d | 24.87% | 0.534 | 0.0251 | 0.25 | -0.07 | $12.65 |
Research snapshot
ValidatedEnd-of-day research
Options snapshotSep 30Frozen chain inputs
Earnings eventOct 15before open
Forecast modelT-21 modelInputs from Sep 24
Forecast checks13 controls0 exceptions · checked Oct 16
Research data · as of 2026-09-30Method: ML forecast