International Business Machines (IBM)

IBM

Q2 2026 Earnings

Reports in

-4days

Tue, Jul 14 · Before open

Options-implied move

±8.8%

$200.60 · $239.40 · via ATM straddle

ATM IV

54.3%

Δ term slope -3.8 v/30d

IV-based EM

±11.0%

σ 54% · 15d

ATM Straddle

$19.40

Strike $220.00

IV Rank

70%

52w 20–62%

Provider signals

Crowding and flow context

Signal score 53

Short days

3.7

34.3M shares short

P/C volume

0.76x

78.2K puts / 102.7K calls

P/C OI

0.38x

58.2K puts / 151.6K calls

Actions

5/1

dividend / split events

massive · short 2026-06-30 · IV coverage 64%

Expected move

Probability density around spot

Log-normal model with ATM IV 54.3% over 15 days. Range $200.60–$239.40.

$183.69 · -16.5%Spot $220.00$256.31 · +16.5%

Spot

−8.8%

+8.8%

Straddle bandIV bandLog-normal density

Hover for probability · click to pin

Term structure

Implied range across expiries

Spot × (1 ± EM) at each expiry. Hover an expiry for details.

4 expiries

Historical

Realized moves · last 8 quarters

Close-to-close moves; implied range pending historical option chains.

EPS beat 7/8

EPS surprisevs sell-side consensus

Realized (up)Realized (down)

ATM greeks

Greeks by expiry

ATM call · delta hedge ratios, sensitivity to vol and time.

Expiry	DTE	ATM IV	Δ Delta	Γ Gamma	𝜈 Vega	Θ Theta	Straddle
Jul 31Earnings K $220	15d	54.27%	0.518	0.0165	0.18	-0.35	$19.40
Aug 14 K $220	29d	50.93%	0.514	0.0126	0.25	-0.21	$25.07
Aug 28 K $220	43d	48.36%	0.515	0.0108	0.30	-0.16	$28.93
Sep 18 K $225	64d	45.77%	0.479	0.0093	0.36	-0.13	$34.05

Options data · as of 2026-07-16Method: options math baseline